The Timeline: Twelve Hours That Changed AI
The Deal: What OpenAI Actually Agreed To
Altman's X post laid out OpenAI's terms with the Pentagon:
"Two of our most important safety principles are prohibitions on domestic mass surveillance and human responsibility for the use of force, including for autonomous weapon systems. The DoW agrees with these principles, reflects them in law and policy, and we put them into our agreement."
These are the exact same red lines Anthropic drew. Mass surveillance. Autonomous weapons. Word for word.
So why did the Pentagon accept OpenAI's terms and reject Anthropic's?
CNBC noted: "It's not immediately clear why the DoD agreed to accommodate OpenAI and not Anthropic." But the political context makes it obvious. Government officials had spent months criticizing Anthropic for being "overly concerned with AI safety." The issue was never the terms - it was the company.
Altman knew this. His Thursday memo to employees was the setup: position OpenAI as sharing Anthropic's values but being willing to negotiate. Let Anthropic take the political hit. Then walk in with the same terms and get the handshake.
The quiet part: Altman also wrote: "We are asking the DoW to offer these same terms to all AI companies." This is either genuine de-escalation or a power move - knowing the terms now carry OpenAI's brand instead of Anthropic's. Either way, OpenAI gets the contract. Anthropic gets the ban.
The Money: $110 Billion in One Round
The funding round announced the same day is staggering by any measure:
| Investor | Amount | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon | $50B | Shifts from $8B Anthropic investment to $50B OpenAI bet. Hedging or jumping ship? |
| Nvidia | $30B | Already invested $15B in Anthropic (Nov 2025). Now playing both sides. |
| SoftBank | $30B | Masayoshi Son doubling down on AI. Previously led Stargate $500B initiative. |
| Total Round: $110B | Pre-money valuation: $730B. Post-money: $840B. | |
For context: Anthropic raised $30B at $380B valuation just two weeks ago. OpenAI's round is 3.6x larger. The valuation gap has blown from 2x to nearly 2x in Anthropic's favor to 2x in OpenAI's favor - in a single day.
Amazon's Position
Amazon invested $8 billion in Anthropic over multiple rounds. Now it's putting $50 billion into OpenAI. That's not hedging - that's a signal. If Anthropic is blacklisted from the federal government and labeled a national security risk, Amazon's $8B investment just became a liability. The $50B OpenAI bet is the hedge against their own hedge.
Nvidia's Position
Nvidia invested $15B in Anthropic in November 2025. Now $30B in OpenAI. Jensen Huang is selling shovels to both sides of the gold rush. But if Anthropic's government business evaporates, Nvidia's compute demand from Anthropic drops too. The OpenAI investment ensures the GPU money keeps flowing regardless.
What Altman Actually Did
Step back and look at the sequence:
- Thursday: Writes a memo saying OpenAI shares Anthropic's values. Establishes moral credibility.
- Friday morning: Closes a $110B round. Establishes financial dominance.
- Friday afternoon: Waits for Trump to ban Anthropic. The market is now open.
- Friday night: Signs the Pentagon deal with the same terms Anthropic was rejected for. Posts it at midnight.
This is not opportunism. This is a playbook. The Thursday memo was written knowing Friday's events were coming. The funding round was timed to land the same day. The Pentagon deal was ready to sign before Anthropic's ban was announced.
The Super Bowl context matters here. Three weeks ago, Anthropic aired Super Bowl ads mocking OpenAI for planning to put ads in ChatGPT. Altman called those ads "clearly dishonest." Now Anthropic is banned from the government and OpenAI has the Pentagon contract. That's not a coincidence - that's a grudge with a strategy attached.
Anthropic's Response
Anthropic said it was "deeply saddened" by the supply-chain risk designation and intends to challenge it in court. The company has not commented on OpenAI's deal.
The legal challenge is significant. The "supply-chain risk" label has only been applied to companies like Huawei and Kaspersky - foreign companies with alleged ties to adversarial governments. Applying it to a domestic American company founded by former OpenAI researchers is legally unprecedented. Anthropic's lawyers will argue the designation is politically motivated, not security-driven.
But legal challenges take months. The Pentagon contract starts now.
The Scoreboard
| OpenAI | Anthropic | |
|---|---|---|
| Valuation | $730B | $380B |
| Latest round | $110B | $30B |
| Pentagon status | Active classified deal | Banned + "supply chain risk" |
| Federal status | Operational | All agencies ordered to cease |
| Revenue (2025) | ~$13B | $14B |
| Red lines on surveillance | Yes (accepted by DoW) | Yes (rejected by DoW) |
| Red lines on weapons | Yes (accepted by DoW) | Yes (rejected by DoW) |
The absurdity is in the last two rows. Same red lines. Same principles. Different outcomes. The variable was not the policy - it was the politics.
What This Means for the AI Industry
- Government contracts are now political. Technical capability and safety policies are secondary to political alignment. AI companies will need Washington lobbyists as much as researchers.
- The safety vs. compliance split is real. Anthropic chose principles and lost the contract. OpenAI chose diplomacy and got the same terms plus the contract. The lesson for every AI startup: how you negotiate matters more than what you negotiate for.
- Amazon is repositioning. $50B into OpenAI while still holding $8B in Anthropic means Amazon is building an exit ramp from Anthropic. If the government ban holds, AWS may be forced to distance itself.
- The $840B company is born. Post-money, OpenAI is approaching $1 trillion in implied value. That makes it the most valuable private company in history by a factor of three.
The Verdict
Friday, February 27 was not a fair fight. Anthropic drew a line, got punished for it, and watched its rival walk through the door with the same line drawn in friendlier ink. OpenAI played the politics perfectly - expressing solidarity with Anthropic's values while positioning itself as the reasonable partner.
The result: OpenAI is now the Pentagon's AI provider, worth $730 billion, backed by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, and operating on classified military networks. Anthropic is fighting a "supply chain risk" label in court.
Same red lines. Same principles. Different outcomes. That's not a safety story. That's a power story.
Sources: CNBC, Bloomberg, Reuters, NYT, NPR, Forbes, TechCrunch. Sam Altman X post (Feb 27, 2026). Anthropic official statement. All facts verified against multiple sources.