CIA Warned Iran Strikes Wouldn't Change the Regime. Now Trump Says the War Is "Pretty Much" Done.

A prewar intelligence assessment concluded US military intervention in Iran was unlikely to topple its leadership. Twelve days and hundreds of deaths later, Iran has a new hardline supreme leader, oil hit $120 before crashing back, and Trump is sending his first clear signals the bombs may stop soon - while simultaneously threatening to hit Iran harder if oil keeps flowing out of the Gulf.

The Gulf in flames: oil infrastructure across southern Iran and Saudi Arabia has been struck repeatedly in twelve days of warfare. (Photo: Unsplash)

Before the first Tomahawk missile left its launcher, US intelligence agencies had already reached a conclusion that has now become deeply inconvenient: military intervention in Iran was not likely to change its leadership.

The Associated Press reported Monday that a prewar intelligence assessment, reviewed by officials familiar with its contents, found that the US strikes now known as Operation Epic Fury were unlikely to trigger regime collapse or produce the kind of leadership change that some in the administration had privately hoped for. The assessment, delivered in the weeks before the war began on February 28, offered no certainty of success on the political goals that gave the strikes their strategic rationale.

Twelve days later, that assessment looks accurate in the worst possible way. Iran has a new supreme leader. He is younger, more radical, and personally motivated by revenge. He is also missing - nobody has seen Mojtaba Khamenei in public since his father was assassinated, and his first missile was launched with a handwritten message: "At your service, Seyyed Mojtaba."

Meanwhile, Donald Trump stood on the South Lawn of the White House on Monday evening and told reporters the war was "very complete, pretty much." Oil markets, which had just experienced their most volatile single trading session in recorded history, dropped $30 in three hours on those words alone.

Whether Trump's signal was strategy or simply the president saying out loud what he was thinking, it has shifted the situation on Day 12. The question is no longer just whether Iran can survive this war. The question is whether the US knows what it was actually trying to achieve - and whether it has any idea how to end it.

The Intelligence Assessment Nobody Wanted to Discuss

Prewar assessments that were apparently inconvenient for the administration's stated objectives. (Photo: Unsplash)

The revelation of the prewar intelligence assessment is significant for one reason above all others: regime change has been the unstated but clearly implied objective of Operation Epic Fury from the beginning.

Trump administration officials never used the phrase "regime change" in official statements. But the targeting choices told a different story. The supreme leader's compound was struck in the opening salvos, killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with much of his family. Senior IRGC commanders were targeted systematically. Hezbollah leadership was hit in Beirut. Every action followed the logic of decapitation - remove the heads, and the body will fall.

The prewar intelligence assessment, as reported by the AP, directly challenged this logic. It found that the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience, its decentralized power structures within the IRGC, and the deep ideological commitment of its core cadres made a leadership collapse following strikes unlikely. The assessment also noted, according to officials familiar with it, that strikes could produce the opposite of the intended effect - rallying nationalist sentiment and producing a successor even more hostile than the one removed.

Both predictions appear to have come true. Mojtaba Khamenei is consolidating power with the full backing of the IRGC, which has always been the true engine of Iranian state power. Large crowds took to the streets of Tehran on Day 9 chanting "Allahu Akbar" to celebrate his selection by the Assembly of Experts - exactly the kind of nationalist mobilization the assessment warned about. And Mojtaba, by every available signal, is his father's son in doctrine and then some.

"Mojtaba Khamenei worked for decades in his shadow; he knows all the details about how the deep state works when it confronts external threats and internal upheaval." - BBC Chief International Correspondent Lyse Doucet, reporting from Tehran, March 9, 2026

The question now consuming Washington is simple but uncomfortable: if the intelligence community assessed this wouldn't work before the first missile fired, who made the decision to proceed anyway - and what was the actual objective?

Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee filed formal requests Monday for the full text of the prewar assessment, as part of a broader push for accountability over what Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) called "the most consequential military action since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, conducted without meaningful congressional input." Multiple war powers resolutions were introduced in both chambers on Monday, though none have the votes to pass.

Trump's Contradictory Endgame Messaging

On Monday, Trump gave the world two incompatible messages simultaneously.

The first: the war is "very complete, pretty much." Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One and later at the White House, Trump suggested that Operation Epic Fury had achieved its objectives and that the fighting could end "very soon." He cited his recent phone call with Vladimir Putin as "very good" and suggested Russia could play a role in facilitating negotiations. Trump described the operation as "one of the most complex and stunning operations ever conducted" in military history.

The second: if Iran - or anyone - disrupts oil flows any further, the US will hit harder. "We will not let Iran hold the world hostage over oil," Trump told reporters. He implied that sustained interference with Strait of Hormuz shipping or Gulf energy infrastructure would trigger a new, larger wave of strikes. He did not specify what that would look like, or against what targets.

These two messages are difficult to reconcile. Either the war is nearly over, in which case threatening escalation is posturing. Or the threat of escalation is real, in which case the war is far from over. Markets initially chose to believe the peace signal - and priced oil accordingly, sending it down roughly $30 in three hours. But traders who have followed this conflict know that Trump's statements have a short shelf life.

"Trump says Iran war could be over soon, but oil disruption would trigger harsher US strikes." - Associated Press headline, Monday March 9, 2026

The Fox News embarrassment on Monday added an unintended layer of chaos to the day's optics. The network aired footage of Trump attending a dignified transfer ceremony for a fallen US service member - except the footage was months old, showing Trump without a hat at a ceremony that had not yet occurred. Fox News issued a rare on-air apology. The mistake, coming on the same day as the prewar intel revelation, fed a Democratic narrative that the administration's public presentation of the war has been consistently distorted from reality.

Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), one of the war's loudest backers, struck a very different tone from Trump's peace signals. Graham issued what was widely described as a threat to Saudi Arabia over its cooperation - or lack thereof - with US operations in the Gulf. The exact nature of the threat was not specified in public remarks, but the subtext was clear: the administration is frustrated with Gulf partners who have declared force majeure on oil production without explicitly backing US military objectives.

The Most Volatile Oil Trading Day in History

Monday's oil price movement - from $90 to nearly $120 and back below $90 - was described by the BBC's economics editor as the most volatile single trading session in market history. (Photo: Unsplash)

The numbers are worth stating clearly: on Monday, March 9, the price of crude oil moved by more than $30 in a single trading session. It opened around $90 per barrel. By early morning Asian trading, it had climbed toward $115. At its peak in London trading, Brent crude touched $119.80. By New York's close, after Trump's peace signals reached the market, it had fallen back to $88.60.

"It has been the most volatile day of oil trading in world history," BBC Economics Editor Faisal Islam wrote in an analysis published early Tuesday morning. The previous record for single-session volatility was set in April 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Monday blew past it.

The mechanics driving the spike are straightforward. Multiple Gulf states have declared force majeure on oil production - a legal clause that releases them from contractual obligations due to events outside their control. Millions of barrels per day of Gulf crude are effectively shut in. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply normally flows, has seen transit rates collapse. LNG tankers that were bound for Europe have executed U-turns in the Atlantic and are now routing through the Panama Canal toward Asia, seeking buyers willing to pay the war premium.

G7 finance ministers held an emergency virtual meeting on Monday morning. Reports emerged of a potential coordinated release of 300 million barrels from emergency stockpiles through the International Energy Agency. The number alone - more than double the largest previous strategic reserve intervention in April 2022 - was enough to dampen the spike before markets actually moved on it. The G7 ultimately held back, deciding against immediate release, but the credible threat of intervention helped cap the ceiling.

US stock markets, which opened sharply lower on Monday morning on war fears and oil shock, reversed course entirely by the close. The S&P 500 erased all of its early losses and closed in the green. The reversal was almost entirely attributed to Trump's peace signals in the afternoon. Whether that recovery holds depends entirely on what happens in the Strait of Hormuz overnight.

"Even if the war stopped today, there is still havoc in supply chains, and damage done to energy infrastructure, that will take weeks to unpick," Faisal Islam noted. The G7's British member, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, told the House of Commons that "the best way to help consumers would be a de-escalation of military tensions" - the most direct signal yet from the UK government that it wants the shooting to stop.

BBC Verify Confirms US Tomahawk Hit School. Trump Blamed Iran Anyway.

On the same day Trump was describing Operation Epic Fury as "very complete, pretty much," his administration was dealing with the publication of verified video footage showing a US Tomahawk cruise missile striking an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps base approximately 200 meters from a primary school in the city of Minab, in southern Iran.

Iranian authorities have reported 168 deaths at the site, including approximately 110 children. BBC Verify, working with footage first analyzed by the open-source intelligence group Bellingcat, confirmed the authenticity of video published by Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency. Three independent experts reviewed the footage and identified the munition as a US Tomahawk.

"The munition in the video has all the hallmarks of a US Tomahawk in its terminal phase." - Senior analyst, McKenzie Intelligence Services, per BBC Verify, March 9, 2026

National security analyst Wes Bryant, a former US Air Force officer, confirmed the Tomahawk identification and added that the evidence for multiple strikes on the entire IRGC compound "is indicative of a deliberate and precise US operation."

A CBS News report, citing a preliminary US government assessment, found the US was "likely" responsible for the deadly strike but had not intentionally targeted the school - framing it as a possible error rather than a deliberate strike on civilians. An Israeli government source told CBS that Israel was not behind the attack and had no military presence near the school.

Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One on Saturday, blamed Iran. "We think it was done by Iran because they're very inaccurate, as you know, with their munitions. They have no accuracy whatsoever," he said. The statement contradicted the available evidence, the preliminary US assessment, and the physical characteristics of the weapon identified in the verified video. Neither the US nor Israel has publicly accepted or denied responsibility. The BBC has asked the US government to respond to the experts' assessment.

Armament Research Services director N R Jenzen Jones told BBC Verify it was "unlikely" an Iranian missile had caused the damage seen at the school, because Iranian munitions of the type typically used carry "relatively small explosive warheads." The Tomahawk, a long-range cruise missile in US service for decades, carries a significantly larger warhead and can be launched from submarines, surface ships, and aircraft.

The Minab school strike has become the war's most visible atrocity claim. It is also the clearest example of the intelligence and transparency gap that Democrats are now demanding to close with formal hearings and war powers resolutions.

Timeline: Day 12 in Full

Mojtaba Khamenei: A Leader Nobody Has Seen

Tehran at night: Iran's new supreme leader has not appeared in public since being named, deepening uncertainty about the regime's internal situation. (Photo: Unsplash)

Twelve days into the war that was supposed to produce regime change, Iran's new supreme leader has not been seen in public once. Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, was selected by the Assembly of Experts on Day 9 after his father's assassination in the opening strikes of Operation Epic Fury. He is reportedly injured from the same strike that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with Mojtaba's mother, wife, and son.

The image presented by Iranian state television and the crowds in Tehran stands in stark contrast to his actual absence. State TV aired footage of missiles fired "in his name," with a handwritten message on the side reading "At your service, Seyyed Mojtaba." Security forces pledged to serve until their "last drop of blood." The IRGC - which was always Mojtaba's institutional base, having joined it straight out of high school before studying in Qom - has visibly stepped forward to fill the leadership vacuum his absence creates.

BBC Chief International Correspondent Lyse Doucet, reporting on Khamenei's background, noted that he "worked for decades in his shadow" and "knows all the details about how the deep state works when it confronts external threats and internal upheaval." He is aligned with Ali Larijani, who heads the Supreme National Security Council, and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the parliament speaker - both veterans with deep ties to the IRGC.

Trump has already said Mojtaba "won't last long." Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has called him "an unequivocal target." If Khamenei remains in hiding, the war's stated goal of changing Iran's leadership posture has produced precisely the kind of underground hardliner government that is most difficult to deal with - invisible, motivated by personal loss, and backed by the full apparatus of a state that has been hardened by decades of sanctions, isolation, and internal repression.

The prewar intelligence assessment's warning rings very loud here. The regime did not fall. It adapted. It found a successor who is younger, more radical, and whose primary motivation is now personal revenge rather than theological governance. The analysis that intervention was unlikely to produce favorable leadership change has proven, in twelve days, to be correct.

The Congressional Reckoning Begins

Democrats moved on multiple fronts on Monday to force a reckoning over the war's legal and factual basis. Multiple war powers resolutions were filed in the House and Senate, requiring the president to cease hostilities within 30 days unless Congress explicitly authorizes the conflict. None of the resolutions has sufficient votes to pass, according to congressional sources, but their introduction is a formal marker - a statement that a growing minority believes the executive branch has exceeded its authority.

More consequential may be the Intelligence Committee requests for the prewar assessment itself. If the assessment is released to Congress - a prospect that depends heavily on White House cooperation - it will become the central document in the debate over whether the administration misrepresented the war's goals and likely outcomes to both Congress and the public.

Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA), a longtime advocate for restored congressional war powers since the 2001 AUMF, told reporters the prewar intel revelation "confirms what we feared: that this operation was launched without honest analysis of whether the stated objectives were achievable." He compared the situation to the 2002-2003 lead-up to the Iraq invasion, when intelligence was presented in ways that overstated confidence in WMD assessments.

"They won't let Iran hold the world hostage - but twelve days in, oil is at $120 and Iran has a new supreme leader. Those are the results of the strategy." - Senate Minority Leader, press briefing, Monday March 9, 2026

Republican support for the war remains largely intact in Congress, but there are visible signs of strain. Two Republican senators who asked not to be named told reporters they were "uncomfortable" with the school strike footage and the administration's response to it. A third said the prewar intel story "needs a real explanation, not a press conference."

The constitutional picture is complicated. Operation Epic Fury was launched under the president's Article II commander-in-chief authority, with the administration citing the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force against al-Qaeda as a supplementary legal basis - a stretch that legal scholars across the political spectrum have criticized. No specific new authorization has been sought from Congress, and the 60-day War Powers Resolution clock, which began on February 28 when operations commenced, will hit its limit at the end of April.

What Comes Next: Deal, Stalemate, or Escalation

The most likely near-term scenarios, based on current reporting, break into three paths.

Path one: a deal. Trump's "pretty much over" comment may be a signal that back-channel negotiations are further along than public reporting suggests. Russia's Putin has been in contact with Trump. Oman, which has historically served as a quiet conduit between Washington and Tehran, has reportedly been in contact with both sides. A ceasefire framework could emerge that gives Trump a "win" declaration while leaving the Iranian state intact and Mojtaba Khamenei in place - the exact outcome the prewar assessment said was the most likely result of intervention.

Path two: stalemate. The war grinds on at its current intensity, with US and Israeli air operations continuing but no escalation to ground forces, while Iran absorbs the damage and keeps fighting asymmetrically through IRGC proxies, drone campaigns, and Hormuz harassment. Oil stays elevated. The economic pain builds. Both sides lose more than they gain but neither can afford to blink publicly.

Path three: major escalation. Trump's threat to strike harder if oil disruption continues is taken seriously by markets, but implementing it raises enormous risks. Hitting Iranian oil infrastructure directly - as opposed to military facilities - would be a significant crossing of lines. A strike on Kharg Island or the Abadan complex would risk catastrophic environmental damage and permanently end any ceasefire prospects.

The humanitarian situation continues to worsen. Iranian authorities have not provided updated death tolls since Day 10, citing the ongoing internet blackout. The school strike in Minab - 168 dead, approximately 110 children, according to Iranian sources, with the US government's own preliminary assessment suggesting US responsibility though "not intentional" - has not been formally acknowledged by Washington. International pressure to investigate is building, with the UN Secretary-General calling for "an immediate, independent, and transparent investigation" into the Minab incident.

There is a version of events where Trump's "pretty much done" comment marks a genuine inflection point - a pivot toward a negotiated exit that markets will price as relief, that allies will quietly welcome, and that Trump will sell as victory. Operation Epic Fury struck its declared targets, degraded Iranian capabilities significantly, and killed the supreme leader who ordered the assassination of US personnel in the preceding months.

There is also a version where the prewar intelligence assessment is correct in its deepest implication: that no outcome achievable through military force will produce the Iran that the United States actually wants. The Islamic Republic has absorbed this war's opening twelve days. It has a new leader. Its IRGC is intact. And a prewar document now in the hands of congressional investigators warned that this was exactly what would happen.

The war that was supposed to be over in 72 hours is on Day 12. The regime that was supposed to fall has a new leader nobody has seen. And oil, which touched $120 on Monday before crashing back, will open again in Tokyo in a few hours. What happens next depends almost entirely on what Donald Trump means when he says "pretty much."