Tomahawk on Film: The Evidence Trump Can't Explain Away on the Minab School Massacre

New footage authenticated by BBC Verify and analyzed by Bellingcat shows a US Tomahawk cruise missile hitting an IRGC base 200 meters from Shajareh Tayebeh primary school in Minab, Iran - where 168 people were killed on the first day of the war. Approximately 110 of the dead were children. The president says Iran did it. Three independent expert groups, a US official speaking anonymously, and the Pentagon's own internal procedures say otherwise.

Fires continue burning across Iranian territory on Day 10 of the US-Israeli military campaign. The Minab incident on February 28 has become the war's most contested civilian casualty event. (Photo: Unsplash)

The video is 14 seconds long. It was recorded on February 28 - the first day of the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran - by someone standing near the Shajareh Tayebeh primary school in the town of Minab, deep in Iran's southern Hormozgan Province. Smoke is already rising from the school when the missile comes into frame. Then it detonates.

Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency published the footage on March 8. By March 9, three separate expert organizations had identified the munition: a Tomahawk cruise missile. A weapon that only the United States is known to possess in this war.

By that evening, a US official had told the Associated Press - speaking anonymously because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly - that the strike was "likely American." The Pentagon had already quietly opened an internal accountability assessment, a process that by its own protocols is only triggered when investigators make an initial determination that US forces may bear culpability for civilian deaths.

President Donald Trump's position remained unchanged. "Whether it's Iran or somebody else," he said at a press conference Monday, "a Tomahawk is very generic." He added, without evidence, that Iran "also has some Tomahawks."

One hundred and sixty-eight people died in Minab on February 28. Approximately 110 of them were children. Ten days later, the person responsible has yet to be officially identified. What has changed is the evidence - and it all points in one direction.

What Happened on February 28

The Shajareh Tayebeh primary school sits in a residential neighborhood on the outskirts of Minab, a mid-sized city in Iran's Hormozgan Province roughly 170 kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz. Adjacent to the school - separated by what satellite imagery shows is a narrow access road - sits a compound operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy. The facility included a medical clinic and barracks for a naval unit.

The compound was a legitimate military target by virtually any reading of the laws of armed conflict. It was also, by any reading, 200 meters from a school full of children.

US Central Command General Dan Caine confirmed on March 2 that Tomahawk cruise missiles were "the first missiles fired at Iran by the US Navy" as part of "strikes across the southern flank." The Pentagon released an illustrative operational map on March 4 showing strike locations during the war's first 100 hours. The Minab area was marked. [AP, March 9]

On February 28, the USS Spruance - a destroyer operating as part of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group, positioned within range of Minab - fired Tomahawk missiles as part of Operation Epic Fury. US Central Command released a photo of the launch. The timing coincides with the school strike. [CENTCOM, DVIDSHUB]

Iran's government reported 168 dead, including around 110 children. The blast destroyed most of the school building. Iranian authorities blamed the United States and Israel. Neither publicly accepted or denied responsibility. The internet blackout imposed across much of Iran made independent verification nearly impossible. No international investigators reached the site.

Hormozgan Province in southern Iran was a key US target zone in the first days of Operation Epic Fury. CENTCOM confirmed Tomahawk launches from naval assets within range of Minab. (Photo: Unsplash)

The Video and What It Shows

The footage published by Mehr news agency on March 8 - authenticated by BBC Verify as genuine - shows a missile in its terminal descent phase approaching a building inside the IRGC compound. The detonation sends up a dark plume. Crucially, before the missile appears in frame, smoke is already rising from the school itself - indicating the school was struck in a separate, earlier hit.

BBC Verify's analysts determined the video was recorded from a position adjacent to the school. Satellite imagery of the area is consistent with every visual identifier in the footage: the flat-roofed clinic building, specific power line configurations, and vehicle positions. The geolocation is conclusive. [BBC Verify, March 9]

Investigative group Bellingcat conducted the first open-source analysis of the missile. Trevor Ball, a Bellingcat researcher, identified the munition as a Tomahawk cruise missile. His conclusion was independently reached by two other expert organizations.

A senior analyst at McKenzie Intelligence Services stated the missile in the video has "all the hallmarks of a US Tomahawk in its terminal phase." Wes Bryant, a national security analyst who served in the US Air Force, confirmed the identification and added that the evidence of multiple simultaneous strikes on the IRGC compound "is indicative of a deliberate and precise US operation." N R Jenzen Jones, director of Armament Research Services (ARES), previously told BBC Verify that Iranian missiles carry "relatively small explosive warheads" - insufficient to explain the catastrophic damage at the school. [BBC Verify / AP, March 9]

The Tomahawk Block IV and Block V variants - the types in current US naval use - carry warheads of approximately 450 kilograms. They are manufactured by Raytheon. The US has sold them to Japan and Australia under tightly controlled arrangements. There is no verified transfer to Iran. No expert group has produced any evidence of Iranian Tomahawk possession.

Bellingcat concluded that the new footage "appears to contradict" Trump's claim that Iran was responsible.

Trump's Denial and What He Actually Said

The president's position on the Minab strike has shifted twice in 10 days without ever acknowledging US culpability.

On March 7, aboard Air Force One, Trump told reporters: "We think it was done by Iran because they're very inaccurate, as you know, with their munitions. They have no accuracy whatsoever." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth quickly interjected that the US military was investigating. [AP, March 7]

At a press conference on March 9, facing new footage and expert analysis, Trump shifted his line. He acknowledged that Tomahawk missiles were the identified munition, but argued: "Whether it's Iran or somebody else... a Tomahawk is very generic." When pressed on whether Iran actually possesses Tomahawk missiles, he replied: "Iran also has some Tomahawks."

When a reporter pointed out that he was the only person in his administration making that claim, Trump responded: "Because I just don't know enough about it." He then added: "Whatever the report shows, I'm willing to live with that report." [AP, March 9]

The sequence is notable. The president's first line - that Iran did it because their weapons are inaccurate - cannot coexist with the second line, that a Tomahawk might be Iranian. If Iran is inaccurate, they would not use a precision cruise missile. If they have Tomahawks, the accuracy argument dissolves. The positions contradict each other, and both contradict the physical evidence.

"Whether it's Iran or somebody else... a Tomahawk is very generic. Iran also has some Tomahawks." - President Donald Trump, press conference, March 9, 2026

The Raytheon Tomahawk is not generic. It is a classified-technology precision munition subject to State Department export controls under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations. The US has not sold it to Iran. Iran has never announced possession of it. No weapons monitoring organization has documented a Tomahawk in the Iranian arsenal.

The Internal Evidence the Pentagon Can't Walk Back

Independent forensic analysis is one layer of the accountability case. The US military's own internal procedures are another - and arguably more damning, because they reflect the institution's own conclusions.

Under Pentagon doctrine for civilian harm mitigation, a Civilian Casualty Credibility Assessment is only opened when a group of investigators makes an initial determination that US forces may bear culpability for civilian deaths. The assessment is not a reflexive response to media coverage. It is triggered by internal evidence. [DoD Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan, 2022]

The US military opened such an assessment into the Minab school strike. The decision to do so is itself an institutional admission that the evidence warranted it.

Additionally, General Caine's March 2 statement - that Tomahawks were the "first missiles fired" across "the southern flank" - combined with the CENTCOM map showing Minab as a targeted area - establishes a documented operational record that places US weapons in that region at the exact time of the strike.

The USS Spruance confirmed firing. CENTCOM confirmed the southern flank targeting. Gen. Caine confirmed Tomahawks were used first. The new footage shows a Tomahawk. Three expert groups confirm the identification. An anonymous US official says the strike was "likely American." The Pentagon opened an internal accountability assessment.

CBS News reported on March 9, citing a preliminary US assessment, that the strike was "likely" American but that the school was not intentionally targeted - framing the event as an error, not deliberate targeting of civilians. Israel's government confirmed to CBS that its military was not operating near the school and was not behind the attack. [CBS News, March 9]

The Shajareh Tayebeh primary school in Minab was adjacent to an IRGC naval compound - 200 meters from the clinic the Tomahawk appears to have struck. International law does not permit proximity alone to justify collateral civilian deaths without adequate precaution. (Photo: Unsplash)

What International Law Actually Requires

The legal question is separate from the factual one. Even if the Minab strike was an error - a misidentification, a miscalculation of blast radius, a targeting system failure - international humanitarian law imposes strict obligations on attacking forces that operate near civilian structures.

The principle of distinction requires combatants to distinguish between military objectives and civilian objects. The principle of proportionality prohibits attacks expected to cause civilian casualties excessive in relation to the anticipated military advantage. The principle of precaution requires attackers to take all feasible steps to minimize civilian harm before and during an attack.

Janina Dill, an expert on international law at Oxford University, addressed the Minab case directly on X: even if the strike was a misidentification, the attacker must have taken sufficient precautions. A 200-meter buffer between an IRGC clinic and a functioning primary school operating during school hours raises immediate questions about proportionality assessments. [Janina Dill, Oxford, March 8]

The IRGC naval medical clinic was the apparent target. A clinic - even a military one - carries specific protections under Additional Protocol I of the Geneva Conventions, which the US has not ratified but treats as customary international law in most operational contexts. Medical facilities lose protection only if they are used to commit acts harmful to the enemy, after a warning has been given and disregarded.

No warning to the school was documented. The children had no operational role. Under any interpretation of the law of armed conflict, the deaths of 110 children will require a legally defensible account of the precautions taken before the strike was authorized. "We don't know enough about it" is not that account.

The Accountability Vacuum

Getting to the truth in Minab faces structural obstacles that have nothing to do with willingness to investigate.

Iran imposed near-total internet restrictions in Hormozgan Province and surrounding areas at the start of the war. Satellite links have been intermittently jammed. Foreign journalists cannot operate freely in Iran under ordinary conditions - wartime conditions have made independent access effectively impossible. No international investigative body has reached Minab. [AP, March 9]

The absence of bomb fragment photographs - which would provide direct forensic confirmation of the munition type - is itself a product of this access blackout. Bellingcat and BBC Verify worked entirely from open-source video, satellite imagery, and expert analysis. Definitive physical evidence remains locked behind a war zone and a government that controls who enters.

The International Criminal Court does not have automatic jurisdiction over US military personnel. The US is not a signatory to the Rome Statute. Iran is not a signatory either, which means the ICC cannot investigate on the basis of territorial jurisdiction. Referral from the UN Security Council would be blocked by a US veto. Congress could theoretically launch its own investigation, but the appetite for cross-party accountability review of a war that retains majority public support - at least for now - remains unclear.

What exists is forensic evidence, an anonymous US official, a preliminary internal assessment, and a president telling reporters that Tomahawks are "very generic."

The Minab Strike in the Wider War

The Minab school massacre did not happen in isolation. It happened on Day 1 of a war that has now entered its 10th day and shows no clear signs of conclusion.

As of March 10, the overall Iranian death toll stands at over 1,200 - a figure Iran has not updated since before the weekend, suggesting either information blackout or a reluctance to disclose new numbers. More than 500,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon, where Iranian-backed Hezbollah remains a second front. At least 300 have died there. Saudi Arabia has recorded its first deaths from the conflict. Seven US soldiers have been killed and returned home in dignified transfers that Trump attended. [AP, March 10]

Iran struck one of Bahrain's desalination plants over the weekend - facilities that are critical to drinking water across Gulf Cooperation Council states. Israel struck oil depot infrastructure in Tehran, generating thick smoke and triggering environmental alerts across the capital. Oil prices reached $120 per barrel Monday before Trump's phone calls to reporters - claiming the war was "very far ahead of schedule" and "pretty much complete" - drove them back below $90. By evening, he walked back those comments entirely. [BBC, March 9]

Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei - appointed after Israeli strikes killed his father and his wife on the first day of the war - has not spoken publicly since assuming power. The Revolutionary Guard has pledged allegiance to him. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized over the weekend for Iranian missile and drone strikes on neighboring countries. Hard-liners immediately criticized the apology. The internal political coherence of the Islamic Republic's war strategy is fracturing even as the fighting continues.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth outlined what comes next on Sunday in a CBS interview: "The ability for us to be up over the top and hunting with more conventional munitions, gravity bombs, 500-pound, 1,000-pound, 2,000-pound bombs on military targets - we haven't even really begun to start that effort of the campaign." [CBS News, March 9]

More strikes. More targets. More civilians living near military installations, the way civilians always live near military installations in dense urban environments.

The Gap Between Evidence and Accountability

In prior American wars, incidents like Minab have been adjudicated - slowly, incompletely, with outcomes that rarely satisfied those who lost family members. The 2015 US airstrike on a Medecins Sans Frontieres hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan, killed 42 people. It took the US military 11 months to release its own investigation findings. Sixteen US military personnel received administrative actions - none were court-martialed. [Pentagon, April 2016]

The Kunduz incident happened during a period of relative transparency, with journalists on the ground, an intact NGO presence, and an adversary with less incentive to suppress information flow. Minab has none of those conditions.

What makes the Minab case distinct from Kunduz, beyond scale, is the active presidential denial. Kunduz was acknowledged as a US strike. Questions were about the chain of command and whether protocols were followed. In Minab, the sitting US president told reporters - with no supporting evidence and against the conclusion of three independent expert organizations - that the weapon involved was "generic" and that Iran "also has some."

This is a different category of problem. It is not a government acknowledging error and investigating. It is a government contesting the basic factual record while its own military quietly moves through accountability procedures that were designed precisely for cases like this.

The 168 dead in Minab - 110 of them children, in a school, on the first day of a war - exist in the gap between those two realities. The evidence is on film. The accountability is not.

What Comes Next

The US military's internal Civilian Casualty Credibility Assessment will eventually produce a finding. Historical precedent suggests that finding will be classified, or partially classified, and released on a timeline determined by the Pentagon rather than by press or public pressure. The findings from comparable incidents in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan - many documented by the Airwaves project and the New York Times - have sometimes taken years to surface in full. [NYT Airwaves project; DoD CHMR-AP]

Congressional oversight is theoretically available. The Senate Armed Services Committee and the House Armed Services Committee have jurisdiction. Whether members with institutional interest in maintaining support for an ongoing war will exercise that jurisdiction aggressively is another question.

International pressure is building but structurally limited. The G7 finance ministers meeting this week focused on oil supply stabilization, not civilian casualty accountability. The UN's humanitarian affairs chief called the situation "a moment of grave peril." The UN Security Council cannot act without US agreement. The ICC lacks jurisdiction.

What remains is the video. Fourteen seconds. A missile in the terminal phase. Smoke already rising from the school. Three expert organizations. One anonymous US official. A Pentagon accountability process that exists precisely because someone decided it should exist for moments like this.

And a president saying: "A Tomahawk is very generic."