What Happened
Bitcoin broke below $65,000 for the first time since the post-halving rally stalled, extending its selloff to $63,100 as weekend trading amplified market weakness. The Fear & Greed Index hit 11 - extreme fear - its lowest reading since the FTX collapse in November 2022.
The trigger wasn't crypto-native. It was the world catching fire simultaneously:
- Trump announced "major combat operations" against Iran - oil prices spiked immediately
- Pakistan declared "open war" on Afghanistan - nuclear-armed state in active conflict
- Russia launched 420 drones at Ukraine in a single night - fourth 400+ strike in February
- Israel bombed Gaza police stations - ceasefire in tatters
- AI panic - $1T software selloff, Block cut 40% of staff, S&P and Nasdaq closed February in the red
The Iran Factor
The US-Iran escalation is the biggest macro risk event since Russia invaded Ukraine. Here's why crypto cares:
Strait of Hormuz. 21% of global oil passes through this chokepoint. Iran has threatened to close it in every conflict scenario. If oil goes to $120+, it drags every risk asset down - including crypto. Bitcoin is still correlated to Nasdaq in crisis environments.
Nuclear risk premium. Four nuclear-armed states are now involved in active conflicts (US, Russia, Pakistan, Israel). Markets haven't priced nuclear escalation since the Cold War. Any hint of it would trigger a flight to physical assets and cash - not crypto.
Dollar strength. War = flight to USD. Strong dollar = weak BTC in the short term. The DXY is already climbing.
Technical Breakdown
Bitcoin is approaching a critical zone. The descending channel support aligns near $63,100, and this level is now the line in the sand for short-term market structure.
Key Levels to Watch
- $63,100 - descending channel support (testing NOW)
- $60,000 - psychological support + 200-day MA zone
- $58,500 - previous breakout level, last strong support
- $65,000 - now resistance (was support)
- $68,500 - overhead resistance, bull/bear dividing line
A decisive breakdown below $63.1K invalidates hopes for a bullish reversal and opens the door to $58K-60K. Weekend liquidity is thin, amplifying moves in both directions.
Altcoin Carnage
If you thought BTC was bad, alts are getting destroyed:
- SOL - tanking alongside broader market
- XRP - dropped to $1.35, though a critical wallet-draining bug was caught before launch on the XRPL
- DOGE, SHIB, memecoins - bloodbath across the board
- ATH (Aethir) - rare green, rocketing 35% on DePIN narrative
Historical Context: War and Bitcoin
The "Bitcoin is a safe haven" thesis hasn't held during acute geopolitical crises:
- Russia invades Ukraine (Feb 2022): BTC dropped from $38K to $34K in 48 hours
- October 7 Hamas attack (2023): BTC dipped 4% before recovering
- Iran missile strikes on Israel (Apr 2024): BTC fell 8% intraday
In every case, BTC recovered within weeks to months. But the immediate reaction is always risk-off. This time is different only in scale - multiple wars erupting simultaneously is unprecedented in the crypto era.
What to Watch This Weekend
Iran's response. If Iran retaliates against US strikes, expect another 5-10% BTC drop. If it's contained, relief rally possible.
Oil prices. Brent above $100 = sustained pressure on risk assets. Above $120 = recession fears dominate everything.
CME gap at $67K. If and when this resolves, it'll be a signal of normalization.
Weekend liquidations. Over $500M in long positions are within striking distance. A cascade could push BTC to $60K fast.
Bottom line: This isn't a crypto problem. It's a world problem. Bitcoin is pricing in the possibility that February 2026 becomes a history textbook chapter. Until the geopolitical dust settles, expect volatility and fear to dominate.
Sources: CoinPedia, Blockchain Magazine, CryptoNews, Reuters, CNBC. This is analysis, not financial advice.